The wave of retail bankruptcies is hardly over. A recent study by RetailDive, which drilled down into data produced by CreditRiskMonitor, highlights a dozen retail brands at risk for bankruptcy in the very near future, very likely this year.
)
CreditRiskMonitor, a service that predicts the risk of companies with publicly traded stock or bonds going bankrupt, makes its predictions based on financial ratios, bond ratings, a commonly used credit analysis model (the Merton model) and other aggregated data patterns.
The 12 retailers at risk include a variety of familiar names, some storied in the industry, but few surprises. They include:
J. Crew, which tried to expand aggressively, but ended up with a $2B debt problem.
Neiman Marcus, whose sales aren't bad, but which is weighed down by debt to the tune of $4.7B.
Sears Holdings: no surprise at all, since Sears has been circling the drain for a while.
JC Penney, suffering along with Sears in the beleaguered department store sector.
99 Cents Only, trying to face down cutthroat competition from the likes of Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Walmart.
GNC, trapped in a competitive market and suffering from lower sales.
Vitamin Shoppe, another company facing competition in the supplement industry.
Fred's, which is finding it harder than ever to compete in the retail pharmacy space.
Destination Maternity, whose sales are dropping.
Ascena Retail, whose Dress Barn brand isn't doing well.
Stein Mart, which isn't doing as badly now as recently, still faces challenges in merchandise, inventory and cost cutting.
Office Depot, which has seen declining retail sales, and which is carrying about $4B in total debt.
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)