| After seeing our NY Capital Markets hoopla, our Chicago readers took a stab with a standing-room-only Breakfast & Schmooze this morning at the Metropolitan Club on the 66th floor of Willis Tower. Legends Mike Reschke and Paul Beitler were at turns philosophical and amusing and kept the audience riveted even though they were glum. They say current circumstances are unlike most of what they’ve seen in the past. Mike said that $800 billion of loans that are coming mature will be unable to be refinanced because they are underwater. Mike suggested that TARP needs some “FABRIC”: Federal Asset Backed Rating Insurance. He’s been suggesting it to officials for some time, he says, but so far to deaf ears. Paul predicts a “black swan” event—an outlier with unpredictable outcome—will happen in the next 24 months, just like they always do. |
| We love all 350 of you who came! Also speaking: Greenberg Traurig’s Mike Fishman, far left, moderated a second panel of HFF's Mike Kavanau, Walker & Dunlop's Vic Clark, RREEF’s David Maki, and Wrightwood Capital's David Friedman. Mike was optimistic that lenders will at least get the chance to do some underwriting again this year, while Vic said he not long ago sold a loan for 90 cents on the dollar that is now worth just 40 cents on the dollar; so he feels like a genius but does anticipate markets are bottoming out. |
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