Deutsche Bank’s calculations on the yield curve show the highest chance of a US recession since the financial crisis—a full 60%, even worse than a coin flip.
The yield curve measures the level of long-term rates relative to short-term rates, and it has gained extra importance this year due to the growing similarities between the two, though this is often an indicator of an economic slowdown, the Wall Street Journal reports. Some of these measures are at their flattest since 2007.
We can only hope the value of the yield curve as a recession indicator is not what it once was, plus many analysts are questioning whether the incredibly low level of short-term rates has destroyed it as a signaling mechanism entirely. However, other major banks are making their own calculations and reaching similar conclusions. [WSJ]
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