VIDEO: Just How Likely Is a US Recession in 2016?
Is the US gearing up for a recession in the new year? Citigroup thinks it’s likely—their G10 rates strategy team led by Harvinder Sian issued a notice predicting a 65% chance of a recession in the US for 2016, with a global recession possible as well.
This prediction comes on the heels of the two- to 10-year spread reaching its narrowest point in months. Despite this slowdown the current yield curve is still elevated compared to the long-term average, which stands at 95 basis points.
But, if the yield curve inverts, the US economy could be in big trouble—if Citigroup is right, of course. [Bloomberg]