Is This The Year Of The Next Recession? Experts Disagree On Warning Signs
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With the New Year’s market dip—and double dip in China—some might agree with Sam Zell (left) and George Soros (right) when they say a recession is on the horizon. Looking closer at market indicators, the two titans could be right.
If history is a guide, the US recovery is set to end soon; so far it's lasted over six years, much longer than the post-WWII five-year recovery average. (In addition, Trend Macrolytics CIO Donald Luskin says rock-bottom oil prices could help push a new recession.)
Meanwhile the risk of China's economic chaos trickling down to the US and Europe "is as great as at any time I can remember," Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says.
Not everyone agrees with the recession warnings, however. Capital One senior managing director Chris Lucas says, yes, there's a disconnect between private and public real estate valuations, but those are simply overreactions from the Fed's December interest rate hike.
"There may be some imbalances, but the bottom line is that things are pretty good," Lucas says. And there are other factors that speak against the two tycoons' predictions.
For one, the stock market is a horrible recession predictor, historically. Not to mention US economic fundamentals (like serious December job growth) are looking solid—despite a shaky Beijing. [Fortune]