HERE COMES THE SUN

NY may be experiencing a frigid winter, but the metro’s office market is heating up, says Reis analyst and amateur weatherman Brad "Roker" Doremus. Q4 transaction data for the metro confirms the trend: transaction activity has picked up in the office sector, particularly in top gateway metros such as NY. The total number of office transactions more than doubled from Q3 to Q4, while dollar volume in Q4 almost quadrupled from the previous quarter. The mean cap rate fell by 130 bps to 6.6% in Q4, after several quarters of volatile figures given thin transaction counts. Helping to smooth out this volatility, the 12-month rolling cap rates fell for the second consecutive quarter, declining 10 bps to 6.4% in Q4 after falling 20 bps in Q3. This is the first time since mid-‘07 that NY’s 12-month rolling cap rate has dipped in two consecutive quarters.

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