Housing affordability has been a hot topic in the industry, as more and more workers get priced out of ownership—San Diego is no exception. And experts at Bisnow's 3rd Annual San Diego Multifamily Summit at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront say locals could be stuck renting for some time.
Freddie Mac's Scott Croul (center) said we are in the midst of a housing crisis, adding that homebuilders are just not developing enough to match demand. And to make matters worse, the homes that are getting built are being targeted toward more affluent customers—not the housing industry stable of Millennials.
Scott was part of a panel of multifamily financing experts, which included Pathfinder Partners' Lorne Polger, Berkadia's Jackson Cloak, Strata Equity Group's David Michan and Coastline Real Estate Advisors' Steve Ludwig.
Jackson says recent stats have shown that only 15% of San Diego residents can afford the average priced home here, based on their income. "When you hear ratios like that, you know people are going to be renting for a long time,” he says. Jackson wonders how a working family is supposed to save up $150k for a down payment on a $600k home when the average income is $100k/year, and the family spends $2k month on rent?” Add to this mix skyrocketing and record student debt, our experts say, and that will keep Millennials renting even longer.
Lorne says his firm is actually expecting cap rates to rise in the coming year, perhaps by as much as 150 basis points. But that's not what's keeping him up at night. It's the fact developers keep ushering in brand new, high-priced apartment projects to a market that increasingly cannot afford the rents. Despite the challenges, Scott still has faith in the market: “We might be in the sixth inning, but it's a doubleheader, and we got another game to play.”
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