We snapped Cantor Commercial Real Estate CEO Anthony Orso and Deutsche Bank Securities global head of commercial real estate Jonathan Pollack last week at the NYU Schack capital markets conference. They say the next four years will feature more maturities than the past four, but we're not heading for a black hole (so you can stay out of the panic room for now, unless you like the taste of rehydrated beef). Jonathan says more capital and credit will be available than during the last cycle of maturities. Anthony adds that assets that can't be refinanced can probably be sold above debt. Goldman Sachs co-head of mortgage trading David Lehman estimates two-thirds will be able to refi.
The regulatory environment has put a drag on opportunity, says Dune Real Estate Partners chief investment officer Cia Buckley. Other permanent capital and structured finance execs revealed worries about maintaining a competitive advantage over global and sovereign investors while buying new properties; weaker capital flows; unemployment, social unrest, and perceived political risk worldwide; and the pace of technological change that quickly renders retail and office buildings obsolete.
When investing abroad, you can't look always at the short term. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has closer to a 25-year horizon as it invests $3B to $4B in real estate annually across 14 countries. We snapped Americas head of real estate investment Peter Ballon with fellow Canadian, Oxford Properties Group's Andrew Trickett. Peter's a strong believer in Brazil for the long term (CPPIB has spent $1.5B there over the past three years). The company also believes it must invest in China and India with that horizon in mind. (Hope they're prepared for some spicy food.)
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