| Last night, Bisnow dropped by Westbury Manor in Westbury, L.I. to hear real estate vet Bob Knakal of Massey Knakal give his outlook on '09's investment market at the Community Bankers Mortgage Forum. The dinner menu? Somber, with a soupcon of optimism. |
| Just chew on his stats: transactions over $100M have dropped 85%, and we can't value buildings once that price without data points.CMBS is down 92%, with no issuances after Sept. Transactions take place only because buyers assume existing debt. |
| No wonder Massey Knakal's Sean Barnes, Lev Kimyagarov,Shimon Shkury, Bob, Clint Olsen, Geoffrey Bailey, and Guthrie Garvin are smiling: Since they focus on under-$100M deals in multifamily, mixed-use, and retail, the firms' transactions have only dropped 40%. Bob says there are plenty of buyers ready to pounce (we're just supply constrained) and high-net worth investors are fueling the market. Aggregate building sales are also performing better than portfolios: Instead of selling a client's 46 assets for the valued $210M, the firm discovered it could fetch up to $300M by selling in pieces. |
| Bob with CBMF board Mary Grace McCloskey of JPMorgan, president Robert van Gelder of NY Community Bank, Dester Cuomo of Astoria Federal Savings, Richard Maher of Brooklyn Federal Savings Bank, and Christopher Deutsch of Metropolitan National Bank. The investment market needs the banking industry and unemployment to stabilize, but he's bullish, thanks to Bernie Madoff and "other knuckleheads"—investors are now likelier to put money in transparent real estate instead of fiduciaries. "It's never a better time to be alive," he concluded. |
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