| We sought out Cushman & Wakefield not only because it fits with our semi-alliterative headline; no, we just couldn't wait for its quarterly overview breakfast to get the market lowdown, so we asked economic guru Ken McCarthy for the early edition. Wipe your brow—nationally, he says, the worst of the decline is behind us. | |
| Current economic glimmers in the US point to improvement by year's end, with commercial real estate following in ’10. Fundamental drivers, like the financial markets, housing, and consumer spending, are showing stabilization. Although unemployment will continue to rise, there’s been a moderation in job loss. Overall, Ken says, the green shoots are still preliminary, and further improvement over the next quarter will point to nearing market bottom. (Maybe all the rain lately will help the shoots grow faster.) | |
| Ken, here with C&W Americas CEO John Santora, says NYC is feeling the stabilization differently; payroll employment is down less than the US, but stats may not be showing all layoffs yet. The TARP effect may actually lessen expected unemployment, with executives snapped up by other firms or starting boutiques. Although this is still a Midtown Class A recession, the effect on real estate is slowing, and the market will lag into the first half of ’10. (Speaking of lag, we’re testing yours. If you didn’t notice Ken’s tie change, go grab a cup of coffee and a nap). |
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