The Recession May Be Coming No Matter Who’s In The White House

The 83-month expansion is already the fourth-longest in over 150 years—and with peaking corporate profits and wage pressures signaling an aging cycle, the next president will probably face a recession.

"If the next president is not going to have a recession, it will be a US record," Gad Levanon, chief economist for North America at the Conference Board, tells Bloomberg. "The longest expansion we ever had was 10 years," beginning in 1991.

Feeble growth has made this recovery particularly vulnerable to shock. The country has averaged just around 2% expansion since the end of the last downturn in June 2009.

Of course, the election itself is having a negative effect on growth, as companies and consumers are increasingly worried about its effect on the economy. And with Q1 growth at only 0.5% year-over-year, it doesn't take much headwind to spark a recession.

"It’s like a bicycle that’s going too slowly. All it takes is a little puff of wind to knock it over," Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS consultants, tells Bloomberg.

Of course, billionaires Sam Zell and George Soros have seen a recession on the horizon for months—a concern that other experts have dismissed, and, so far, hasn’t come to pass. [Bloomberg]

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's National Newsletters
Related Stories

Wall Street Impatient For Big Tech Returns On Data Center Spending

As AI Adoption Ramps Up, Half A Million Property Managers Are In The Crosshairs

Treasuries Hover Around 4.7% As Wall Street Questions If Warsh Is A 'Dove In Hawk's Clothing'

Federal Government To Sell Nearly 31K SF In Five Points: The Denver Deal Sheet

Avison Young Had Assets Frozen By Bank Over Unpaid Taxes

Artificial Intelligence Companies Reshaping Dublin Office Demand As OpenAI Confirms HQ

Mars Factory Overhaul Stalls As Candymaker's Chicago Expansion Accelerates

Camden Property Trust Sells West Coast Portfolio, Clears $1.5B Target

Churchill Downs Plans To Sell 9 Casinos, Focus On Horse Racing

Bringing Stability And Savings To CRE Insurance Through Working Layer

More Hotel Owners In Need Of Cash Are Getting It From The Big Brands

Former Arms Dealer Targeting Heartland Apartment Takeover Files For Bankruptcy