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Real estate research firm Green Street Advisors said in a note that if Intu’s assets were valued at the going market rate, they would be worth less than its debt and the company’s equity base would be wiped out.
The note, UK Retail: Thinking Outside The Valuers’ Box, said that the price of Intu’s shares implied that its shopping centres were valued at a yield of about 5.8%.
But when the price at which assets are trading in the market is taken into account, as well as the amount that Intu will have to spend on them to improve the quality, they should be valued at a yield of about 6.5%, Green Street said. If that were the case, they would be worth less than its debt.
Intu’s shares have dropped by 81% to 36p since November, when Brookfield walked away from a takeover deal for the company. The gross value of its portfolio is £8B, with around £5B of debt.
“The company has manageable debt maturities in the near term and limited covenant risk in the same period,” Green Street said. “Thus small actions by the management or others could have outsized impacts on the share price.”
With a market capitalisation of just £492M, Intu, once a member of the FTSE 100, is now a small cap company of a similar size to niche companies like Urban & Civic, Jefferies analyst Mike Prew said.
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