Municipalities on the south side of Miami-Dade County are known for their single-family-home-dominated neighborhoods and public schools, a contrast to the multifamily, office and hotel high-rises of Miami's downtowns that their leaders have long viewed as a strength.

But the bedroom communities are especially vulnerable if the state legislature passes a plan championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to eliminate residential property taxes, which fund local hospitals, police, fire rescue, public schools and water management.

Without enough commercial properties to carry the weight, the mayors of Pinecrest, Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay said at Bisnow’s South Dade State of the Market event on Tuesday they have regrets about not reeling in development when they had the chance.

“We didn't have the foresight to increase the zoning enough to bring in a commercial,” Pinecrest Mayor Joseph Corradino said onstage at the Hilton Dadeland. “Commercial wouldn't be subject to the property tax issue, and we're going to get crushed, probably because of short-sightedness.”

DeSantis proposed the idea to slash property taxes for homeowners in October last year, campaigning on it as a way to lower housing costs. Roughly 31% of Florida's homeowners pay more than 30% of income toward their housing, second only to California, according to census data.

Last week, the Florida House of Representatives passed a bill to repeal property taxes on everything other than the taxes that fund public schools. It would keep property taxes on second homes, investment properties and commercial properties.

Because property taxes are governed by the constitution, meaning they can’t be changed by law, the House and Senate will have to pass a joint resolution and get a proposal to Florida voters on Nov. 3.

Property taxes account for about 43% of municipal general fund revenue, according to a Florida League of Cities study conducted by Wichita State University.

Any cuts to property taxes — whether full or partial — would have no benefit for renters and new homeowners and would likely cause an increase in taxes on commercial and rental properties, according to the report. Property owners would likely pass along those costs to tenants in the form of higher rents.

Florida already has the most cost-burdened renters in the country: 60% of its renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing costs, and the state has 1 million more renter households than owner households, according to the Census Bureau

And for towns and villages like Pinecrest, where more than 90% of the municipality is made up of single-family homes, the lost revenue would be more concentrated than cities such as Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

Pinecrest has maintained a “don’t get near me" attitude with developers in an attempt to stay true to the rural character of the neighborhood, Corradino said. The town changed its zoning along US1 and around transit to give more flexibility — but it wasn't enough to attract investment, he said.

“Certainly not flexible enough to warrant any future of positive development, and that's going to bite us,” he said.

Palmetto Bay, a village made up of 92% single-family homes, is also at risk. More than 57% of Palmetto Bay’s total tax values come from homesteaded properties, Cunningham told the Miami Herald.

The village recently implemented a pay-to-park system that has drawn backlash from its residents, Cunningham said onstage, adding that the policy was intended to support a broader effort established in 2017 to develop a downtown area.

But there are “missing pieces,” she said.

“We did it because when we started the development [and when] we thought of this concept, people are going to walk places,” Cunningham said. “Well, there's nowhere to walk right now. There's no retail there.”

The town of Cutler Bay is in a much better position for the future. Developers Electra America and BH Group broke ground last year on a $1.5B, 80-acre redevelopment of Southland Mall called Southplace City Center. It's set to bring 150 hotel units, more than 4,000 apartments, 60K SF of medical office space, 150K SF of retail and a community amphitheater.

But in the immediate term, a cut to property taxes would still take a bite out of Cutler Bay's finances, Mayor Tim Meerbott told Bisnow after the event.

"We're still going to be in a shortfall in the short term until [the redevelopment is] completed," Meerbott said. "So, futuristic, we are in a much better place than Palmetto Bay or Pinecrest, [but] at this point, we're almost in the same boat as far as not being able to pay for that shortfall."

About 32% of Cutler Bay's revenue comes from homestead property taxes, and it pays for things like the police department, he said. If a law repealing the duties goes through, it would eliminate $13M from the municipality's $48M spending budget.

"We are on the cusp of being much greater in the commercial area, but we're not there yet," Meerbott said.