When's the Next Recession?

This morning, a packed room of Cushman & Wakefield employees heard the news--another potential downturn--from Rosen Consulting Group chair Ken Rosen at the Four Seasons.

We have two to three more years before an "inevitable correction," the economist says, and he thinks the big worry for S.F. is we've become all tech. Compared to the dot-com era of startups destined for failure, this time there's luckily a diverse mix of social media, software and HR. The weakness in S.F. is the capital markets being the lifeblood of new entities we have. Robust capital markets pushed up values of stock, and capital raising is being used to add employees and buy companies. If there's a big correction in the capital markets, he expects a slowdown. (Though not like 2001.)

During the next wave of building, we're going to face the Prop M ceiling, which adds just 875k SF of large office space to the city limit each year. Ken's worried it could constrain our growth as the center of tech, as some companies might have to go outside of the Bay Area. And there's still a shortage of housing to keep up with job growth. (Ken is a proud renter of an apartment next to Twitter--his son is the tenant while attending law school nearby at UC Hastings.) Rents in newer buildings are running $3,500 to $4,000 a month or more for a one bedroom. That means a lot of demand here is subsidized by parents, he says. "A lot of you know that," he laughs.

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's San Francisco Newsletters
Related Stories

JVP Development Is Betting $37M Of Its Own Money That Frisco Is Ready For Spec Office

Hedge Fund Bids $88M For Spirit Airlines' Former HQ

Oyster Point's Second Phase Half-Leased As Kilroy Navigates Soft Lab Demand

BXP Closes In On Next D.C. Office Development As It Shrinks Assets

Clarion Under Contract To Sell 18-Story Seaport Office Tower

Oil Company Expands Again At Cash Register Building

BXP's 343 Madison Lands $1.2B Loan, Nears Deal With Equity Partner

D.C. Sues To Block HUD Headquarters Move To Virginia

Ken Griffin Completes Takeover Of Brickell Block, Setting Stage For $2.5B Megaproject

Private Equity Firm Buys Former Texas Instruments Campus For New Headquarters

DFW Office Footprints Likely To Shrink As AI Use Increases And Companies Battle For Talent

Boston Waterfront Property Planned For Hotel Project Put Up For Sale