Economists at Credit Suisse get asked about a 2016 recession every day. So the banking giant decided to address the recession rumors head-on.
"In our view, the US is not in a recession now, and won't be later this year either,” the bank economists wrote in a note released this week, releasing three charts to support their position:
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index measures trends towards weakness or strength, the note says. The index has dropped a bit, but is nowhere close to the -0.7 line associated with recessions.
Only eight of 23 US industrial subcomponents have slowed over the past year—in a recession, almost all would be contracting, the bank says.
And with overall manufacturing (75% of total industrial production) showing no signs of slowing, "we cannot now cast recession," the economists write.
The slowdown is confined to states where the economy depends on mining or drilling. "Typically, all states experience sharp weakness in recessions," Credit Suisse's economists add.
As of right now only seven states are feeling a cash crunch—and you guessed it, the ones with high concentrations of mining and drilling. "We are confident that the US economy is not now in a recession," the bank concludes.
