A strong hurricane is set to make landfall near the northern Gulf Coast, crossing the path of billions of dollars worth of commercial properties in Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.
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Hurricane Isaias is scheduled to make landfall Friday night, with an estimated 31,659 commercial properties across Alabama, Florida and Mississippi having more than a 50% chance of facing winds of at least 50 mph, according to Moody's interactive data. The total estimated value along the storm's path is $71.8B.
These projections don't predict losses or damages from the storm, just the scope of properties that may be impacted in the wake of the hurricane.
Residential buildings make up almost half of the potential properties impacted, at 14,945, with an estimated value of $40.2B. The cities expected to be the hardest hit are Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida.
Mobile has 6,337 commercial buildings with an estimated value of $17.5B and 1,670 multifamily residential buildings with an estimated value of $3.1B. Pensacola has 6,039 commercial buildings with an estimated value of $13.6B and 4,757 multifamily residential buildings with an estimated value of $8.8B.
In April, Alabama passed legislation to better predict the damages and costs associated with natural disasters and to invest in resilience for insurers and property owners. The law was decades in the making after Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina rampaged through the area along the Gulf Coast in 2004 and 2005.
Hurricane Isaias marks the first hurricane to make landfall in the region since Hurricane Sally in 2020.
“Isaias is the first hurricane of the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season and represents the latest point in the calendar year that the first hurricane has formed,” James Cosgrove, Moody’s Analytics associate director of Moody's RMS event response, said in a statement.
The U.S. has seen more than 400 billion-dollar weather events since 1980, with a 180% increase in these types of events between 2013 and 2023. In that time frame, property insurance costs have also skyrocketed in these coastal states.
States of emergency have been declared in parts of Alabama, Florida and Georgia.
On Friday, Hurricane Isaias strengthened to a Category 3 storm expected to make landfall later in the day near Pensacola, CNN reported. Widespread outages are expected, with storm surge up to 9 feet.
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