Banks are pulling back on multifamily construction lending as a glut of new product hits the market. “Every time we think we have a handle on the 25,000 [apartment] units coming into the market in Atlanta, oh, here's another deal we didn't know about,” said Wells Fargo's Melissa Frawley during our 2016 Capital Market Update at the JW Marriott in Buckhead last week. “In the past month or so, it feels that the construction lending has tightened, especially for multifamily lending.”
There are various other issues that appear ready to tone down the rampant level of new multifamily development here, our panelists say. Aside from Melissa, our group included Hunt Mortgage Group's James Kelly, State Bank & Trust's Blake Snyder and AGH's Wes Hudson, who moderated.
And Wes noted the solid fundamentals experienced with apartments may have begun to show signs of cracking. Wes says concessions are starting to pop up again in a quest for renters.
But it goes beyond that. Wes says the stock market correction earlier this year also hurt the allocations that pension and life companies were able to pump into real estate. Since allocations are based on a percentage, the total pool of available dollars shrank, and with it, so did those institutional players' kitty of available funds, he says.
“I think everybody can agree we're getting close to the peak,” Blake says, noting he's seeing yields becoming thinner and the price per square foot to develop a new apartment project “creeping up on every deal.”
“So the question is always asked, 'Where's the breaking point?' I'm not smart enough to know the answer.”
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