The Coming CMBS Refi Glut?
In case you missed it, we shared coffee and conversation with more than 250 attendees this morning at The W Midtown for our Atlanta Capital Markets Summit. Both th e debt and equity sides say they're much better than they were even a year ago—especially if you're in multifamily. But Trimont Real Estate's John Charles warns that a good market has a double-edged sword: "If you can't refinance in this market, then you've got problems." (To misquote Jay-Z: You got 99 problems, but a refi ain't one.)
John (right, with moderator Bull Realty's Michael Bull, GE Capital's Ed Coco, Goldman Sachs' Rod Reppe and Wells Fargo's Melissa Frawley) also predicted that his special servicing biz will pick up by 2016 as CMBS loans originated at the peak of 2006 and 2007 come due. But Goldman Sachs' Rod Reppe (a rock star with his own band The Apostles) says he kept hearing, "Next year, next year, next year," in regards to the expiring loans. It never happened, so it will be interesting to see when it finally does.