Angst Permeates D.C. Real Estate As Bowser's Exit Clouds Mayor's Race

Throughout the tumultuous last decade for D.C. real estate, one factor has remained constant: The city has been led by a mayor the industry sees as a supporter of development. 

That could soon change. 

Mayor Muriel Bowser announced last week she will not seek a fourth term, creating a wide-open race next year to succeed her. With the primary election six months away, the field is just beginning to take shape. But some real estate leaders worry the city will elect a new leader who is less business-friendly. 

“I’m very anxious as to what the future political landscape will look like,” said Dean Hunter, the CEO of the Small Multifamily Owners Association, an apartment landlord lobbying group.

“There are a number of factors here that could help elect some kind of democratic socialist like [Zohran] Mamdani in New York,” Hunter said. “The democratic socialists are champing at the bit right now. They have a shot to go after the mayor.”

Developers say they have already seen investors shy away from D.C. this year as the Trump administration has gutted federal agencies, deployed troops on the streets and overseen the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Economists have issued warnings of a localized recession. 

A leftward shift at the Wilson Building, the seat of D.C. government, could worsen the city’s perception in the eyes of big-dollar decision-makers. 

“There are a lot of eyes on the city, there are brand and reputational challenges we’re facing now across the country, and as investors look where they want to spend dollars, they have options all over the country ... so we want to make sure we have a leader who is sensitive to that,” said Horning CEO Jamie Weinbaum, a longtime local developer.

“If there’s a candidate who is trying to prevent growth and business or believes that those aren’t the right sources to align with and doesn’t want to support that, then that will be a cause for concern,” he added. 

While D.C. has faced a sharp drop in construction over the past two years, seven real estate leaders Bisnow spoke with for this story agreed that Bowser has been a positive force for the city’s development landscape since taking office in 2015. 

During her first year, Bowser allocated a record $100M toward the Housing Production Trust Fund, a vehicle for filling gaps in affordable housing project budgets. It remained at or above that level for most of the last decade and became a key tool developers used to finance projects in the city. 

In 2019, she set a goal for the city to build 36,000 housing units by 2025, with 12,000 of them being affordable. D.C. surpassed the top-line goal with over 40,000 units built but is still short of the affordable target by roughly 1,500 units, according to the city’s tracking page.

Urban Atlantic has delivered 3,000 units during Bowser’s administration, said the developer's managing partner, Vicki Davis. Its projects include city-subsidized affordable housing units and the Whole Foods-anchored Parks at Walter Reed on city-owned land. 

“I don’t think we could have done that without her support and guidance,” Davis said.

Bowser’s tenure has been marked by a stream of groundbreakings and ribbon-cuttings, from billion-dollar megaprojects like The Wharf, City Ridge, Capitol Crossing, Parks at Walter Reed and St. Elizabeths East to the rapid development of the Navy Yard and NoMa-Union Market areas. 

“That was all under her watch, and I think she did a phenomenal job,” said Hoffman & Associates Chairman Monty Hoffman, best known for spearheading The Wharf. 

Real estate leaders also praised Bowser's handling of the city’s relationship with the federal government, including two Trump administrations; her leadership of the city through the coronavirus pandemic; and her push to revitalize the downtown area. 

The remote-work trend brought on by the pandemic has damaged the office market in the city's central business district, and the downtown area was nearly crippled when Monumental Sports announced it would move the Capitals and Wizards franchises to Virginia.

But Bowser last year struck a deal to keep the teams in D.C. and renovate Capital One Arena. 

This year, she reached a $3.8B deal to bring the Washington Commanders back to the city and build a new sports and entertainment complex on the site of RFK Stadium. And she pushed through the Rental Act, a bill aimed at stabilizing the city’s rental housing market and driving more investment. It received strong support from landlords and passed the council in September.

The real estate industry’s praise for Bowser has come pouring in since she announced she wouldn’t run again. SMOA announced it would honor her with an award at its Dec. 13 Housing Policy Summit, and the Apartment and Office Building Association sent an email to members thanking her for “unwavering commitment to the people of this city.”

But now, real estate leaders worry the coming election could spell the end of a lengthy period of stability for D.C.’s economic policies, not just during Bowser’s administration but throughout this century under former mayors Vincent Gray, Adrian Fenty and Anthony Williams, all of whom were pro-growth moderates. 

“We’ve had a really successful string of mayors who have had pretty consistent viewpoints and policies when it comes to supporting growth and supporting the business community, understanding that a healthy business climate makes for a healthier city,” Weinbaum said. 

The one local lawmaker who has announced a run for mayor thus far, Council Member Janeese Lewis George, is a self-described democratic socialist who has reportedly been plotting a “Mamdani-style campaign” and is looking to hire people who helped him win the NYC mayor’s race this year. 

“She would be a disaster for the economic viability of the city,” Hunter said of Lewis George. “She has pursued policies on the council that show a disregard, a lack of awareness of basic business principles.”

In 2022, Lewis George, who holds Bowser's former seat representing Ward 4, sponsored a Green New Deal For Housing Act that would have created publicly owned social housing. The legislation ultimately failed to pass. She was also one of three council members who voted against Bowser’s Rental Act.

Other real estate leaders declined to comment on Lewis George but voiced broader concerns about D.C. electing a mayor who would make it harder to do business in the city. 

One local real estate executive has launched a long-shot campaign for mayor: Gary Goodweather, a managing principal at GME Investments who previously worked at StonebridgeCarras, MRP Hospitality and OTO Development. 

A more well-known candidate who is viewed as business-friendly is Council Member Kenyan McDuffie, whom Axios reported plans to run but hasn’t made an announcement. An at-large council member who previously represented Ward 5, McDuffie chairs the council’s Committee on Business and Economic Development. 

SMOA’s Hunter said he is waiting to see the final field of candidates but “will probably support” McDuffie. 

“I do think he’s going to get a large share of support from the business community, from the rental housing industry,” Hunter said. 

Weinbaum said he is waiting to see the full field develop before deciding who to support, but he said McDuffie has “done great work collaborating with members of the business community.”

AOBA Vice President of Government Affairs Eric Jones said the organization has worked with McDuffie more than with Lewis George due to the former’s committee leadership role, but it isn’t ready to make an endorsement.

“We hope whoever becomes the next mayor understands that while you have your ideals and vision, if you’re not willing to work with people through the entire process, you’re willing to fail,” Jones said. 

Stonebridge principal Doug Firstenberg, who recently completed the redevelopment of the former WMATA headquarters in Chinatown into trophy offices, said he hopes the next mayor understands the “challenging economic and political environment” the city faces. 

“District revenues have soared tremendously during the mayor's tenure, but they're not soaring now,” Firstenberg said. “So, bringing a practical approach to balancing the need to invest to create more revenue but understanding the limits on spending today is critical.”

Hoffman, speaking Tuesday at a Bisnow event with hundreds of industry players in the audience, said the city has “some issues here we need to get through, not the least of which is a new mayor.” 

“I would encourage everyone in this room, if you have any interest in Washington, D.C., to be looking for a business-friendly mayor and support that candidate,” he said. “Obviously, it’s in the formative stages, but this is something that’s going to matter to us in the next year.”