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In its quarterly update, Fitch Ratings—one of the three recognized SEC-rating organizations—gave a health report on the hotel, multifamily, office and retail markets. Here’s what you need to know:
Despite Airbnb breathing down their necks, hotels are still reaching record levels. The sector may be moving past its peak in many major markets, however. Hotels have enjoyed 59 consecutive months of RevPAR growth through July—as well as low oil prices and favorable demand. But for those refinancing existing hotel CMBS deals, one can expect low interest rates (thank the Fed for that) and limited new supply in four major markets—New York, Miami, Seattle and Houston. Additionally, hotel investors should be worried about the potential for oversupply, the effects of California’s drought and the negative effects of low oil prices for Houston (shown) and Calgary.
Fitch says multifamily also has a bright future, with vacancy increases in DC rising from 4.2% in Q2 12 to 6.9% in Q2 15. Reis and Fitch state that energy hub Houston also has increasing vacancy, and its supply may outpace demand by 2019.
For Houston’s office space, however, vacancy has increased from 14.2% in 2014 to 15.6% this year, and it’s full construction pipeline (11M SF underway, surpassing even New York’s 9.5M SF).Outside of Houston, Fitch says to keep an eye on “tech bubbles” in the Bay Area, Seattle, Boston and New York and their submarkets. Manhattan’s Midtown South and Boston’s Cambridge/Route 128 North have seen year-over-year increases of more than 7%.
Retail vacancies have reached a new low, while rents have grown moderately with a 0.6% year-over-year growth. But, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows, as Fitch also noted increased store closings in underperforming Class-B and C malls in secondary and tertiary markets. [GS]
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