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Short Hills Capital Managing Partner Steve Weiss warned of the potential impact of commercial real estate's wall of debt on CNBC's Halftime Report, citing the size of the wall and how soon it would need to be refinanced.
“You're going to see a trillion that's got to be refinanced not that far away from now,” Weiss said.
Moreover, the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank were just the beginning, and the other shoe hasn't dropped for other banks yet, he said.
“Leases haven't ended,” Weiss said. “People haven't walked away from their leases. That's going to happen.”
Short Hills Capital is an alternative investment fund primarily established to invest the personal wealth of billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper.
Other reports assert a similar CRE debt dynamic. Most office CMBS loans that come due this year will have problems at refinancing, according to a study by Moody's Analytics.
Delinquencies on real estate loans have already started to tick upward. In May, the delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities made the biggest jump in three years, according to Trepp. The rate of loans behind on payments rose 53 basis points, the steepest increase since June 2020. Overall CMBS delinquency is 3.65%, the highest level since March 2022.
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