For those in real estate that back Brexit, the argument is clear: Leaving will be good for UK economic growth in the medium to long term, and that will have a direct impact on the prospects for UK commercial property.
“In the medium term, I think it is fantastic for the UK to dislocate itself from the EU, which is bust, and make our own arrangements as a smaller country,” Prestbury Investments Chairman Nick Leslau said. “We won’t stop trading with them, but in the same way that when a small company spins out of a large conglomerate, I think in the medium to long term we will outperform.
“If you look at how UK property has performed over the past 50 years, the graph looks almost exactly the same as the graph of UK GDP. In better economic times people want to take more space, so if UK GDP is better, then property will perform better, too.”
While not advocating for Brexit, research firms like Green Street have pointed out that when it comes to the London office market, Brexit is actually a red herring: Even with no certainty about a trade deal, far fewer firms have relocated jobs from London than were predicted, and job losses in finance have been more than compensated for by growth in tech jobs. With a deal in place, and certainty over the relationship between the UK and EU, even fewer jobs would be likely to leave.
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