Jones Lang research indicates initial recovery of the industrial market could come as soon as 3Q10. Doing its part, JLL repped owner First Industrial Realty Trust last week in a 288k SF lease at 356-acre First Park DalPort, on South I-45 in Wilmer. The lease for Continental Tire’s new distribution center is the first in First Park. JLL managing director Terry Darrow says some large, late ’09 leases— Kohler, Discount Tire, United Natural Foods—should result in positive net absorption, however excessive inventory remains: DFW industrial vacancy is at 13%. Not quite the 5-7% Terry deems healthy.

Per the illustration, Terry says it’s a great buying time in the smile. He explains: Rents fall and become stagnant at the bottom of the smile. Clients get nervous because they fear making a decision and things getting cheaper. But, we’re seeing foreclosures and sales, which bode well for a bottoming of the market. Are we in the upturn of the smile? Not yet, he says. Rental rates have dropped 30%, and heavy concessions continue. Effective rental rates remain subdued and are not expected to increase in the near term. To visualize our feelings about that, turn his whiteboard upside-down.