CB's Outlook; Latest Deals
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|Gourmet breakfast. Optimistic outlooks. We could get used to this. A day after we scoped out Cushman's Q3 breakfast briefing, we visited the Metlife Building to hear CB Richard Ellis execs paint the Manhattan picture. Cyclical was the word du jour. Meaning, we cankick worry to the curb for a while. But, they say, that's only if New York can stop its knee-jerk reactions to how the financial crisis will affect vacancy. The verdict? Cautious optimism, recalling the city's legendary resiliency.|
|Global brokerage chair Steve Siegel andTri-state SVP Simon Wasserberger, pictured here with Tri-state prez Mitch Rudin, suggested fallout from the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers hasn't been as bad as expected. Although many assume that layoffs cause more space on the market, firms can't sublease without consolidation, taking a financial hit, and keeping future employment needs in mind—so they're more cautious about subleasing this time around. The CBers predict we won't see a major decline in rents unless we hit over 140k in layoffs—triple Moody's expectation. Worst-case scenario: 12% vacancy by '11. Best case scenario: They add lox to the menu at the Q4 breakfast.|
|We also learned that a majority of Manhattan's top low-leverage landlords will ride out the turbulence, and tenant demand foralternate-to-Midtown neighborhoods will also remain strong. Maybe that's why consulting group head Susan Nagler-Cohen and Midtown brokerage expert Matt Van Buren find 7th-grade mathhomework more difficult than real estate these days. Both parents report being in their own storm of schoolbooks and soccer games.|
|CB's resident athletes: Tri-state retail head Alison Lewis and downtown head Sheldon Cohen. Alison's perfecting her golf gameand actually welcomes this cooler weather, while Sheldon is training for the ING New York City Marathon, less than a month away. No truth to the rumor that the market crisis has dropped it to a 10K.|