'What A Soft Landing Looks Like': Economists React To June Jobs Report On Twitter

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 jobs in June, lower than consensus estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June. It has remained at or below 3.7% since the end of the first quarter of 2022.

Construction employment continued its upward trend in June, adding 23,000 jobs. The industry has averaged 15,000 monthly jobs gains this year after growing by an average of 22,000 jobs per month in 2022.

Another commercial real estate-related industry, the leisure and hospitality sector, added 21,000 jobs in June. The industry is now below its pre-pandemic, February 2020 job count by 369,000 jobs.

Employment in retail trade fell by 11,000 jobs in June and has shown little net change over the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Here's how economists and others reacted to the June jobs report on Twitter:

US employers added 209,000 jobs in June, fewer than the 230,000 expected by economists, but wage growth held firm.

That's the first time payrolls have come in lower than consensus estimates in more than a year.

— Kate Davidson (@KateDavidson) July 7, 2023

The story of today is definitely a somewhat cooler (though still pretty darn warm) jobs market.

Payrolls revised May down -33k, and April down -77k. So over the past three months, we've had prints of +217k, +306k, and now +209k, for an average rate of +244k.

That's still robust

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 7, 2023

US gained 209,000 jobs in June, but 30% of that was gov't jobs. Some industries did lay off.

Gov +60,000
Healthcare +41,000
Social assist +24,000
Construction +23,000
Biz +21,000
Hospitality +21,000
Transport/Warehouse -7,000
Retail -11,000
Temp help -13,000

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) July 7, 2023

Don't be fooled by the headline commentary; this is another really solid jobs report

The Prime-Age 25-54 Employment Rate adjusts for participation and demographic changes.

It reached another new high in this expansion! Just 1% from all-time highs now (81.9% in April 2000) pic.twitter.com/qJEf2j9dXz

— Skanda Amarnath (@IrvingSwisher) July 7, 2023

In case you read a downbeat headline about the US labor market any time soon, just come back to the big picture: https://t.co/8oYzfgN7L0

— Guy Berger (@EconBerger) July 7, 2023

"No one wants to work anymore" update: 80.9% of Americans ages 25-54 were employed in June. That's the highest since April 2001.

— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 7, 2023

Hey, remember the "she-cession," and those fears that it would set working women back a generation?

Prime-working-age women (25-54 years) just hit yet another month of record-high labor force participation... pic.twitter.com/1qL3D03Atq

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) July 7, 2023

Employment slowing to 209K is what a soft landing looks like. It is enough to keep unemployment low and continue to create the incentives for people to enter the labor market.

— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) July 7, 2023

Here is the path of #job creation over the past two years. Remember: a gain of about 80,000 each month is enough to keep the unemployment rate constant. This is still an awfully strong #employment picture. pic.twitter.com/HPcbR3eaw8

— Carl R. Tannenbaum (@NT_CTannenbaum) July 7, 2023

Hard to see this report changing the trajectory for Fed policy. Job growth a little cooler, wage growth a little hotter, degree of labor force slack (or lack thereof) basically unchanged.

Looks like another rate hike later this month!

— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) July 7, 2023

In the June jobs report, residential building construction employment is up 0.8% YoY, while nonresidential is up by 4.8%. Residential building is up 11% compared to pre-pandemic, while nonresidential building is up 1.8%. Both were up on a MoM basis. (7/n) pic.twitter.com/FqH8rjVh0v

— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) July 7, 2023

restaurant employment fell by 800 in June, first drop since December of 2020

— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) July 7, 2023

If inflation in June comes in the way I think it might, with autos and shelter softness, it’s going to be a very strong real income growth month.

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) July 7, 2023

In sum,

- wage growth is holding up as consumer price growth slows, eroding fattened profit margins, expanded supply & competition in prod & labor market is healthy,

- labor market still strong but expansion decelerating,

- expansions don't die of old age, don't need recession

— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) July 7, 2023