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Deutsche Analyst's Model Says There's A 55% Chance Of Recession


There's a 55% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, suggests a model by Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Zeng.

The model bases its analysis on the spread between the 10-year US Treasury notes and two-year ones—which is at its narrowest since 2007.

The 55% probability is the highest generated by this model since the last recession, and could be a topic of discussion at the Fed’s June meeting this week, Bloomberg reports.

Billionaire moguls like Sam Zell and George Soros have been predicting a recession for months now—so far to no avail. But a host of economic worries, such as Brexit, a Fed rate hike, and the 2016 election threaten to prove the Grave Dancer correct. [Bloomberg]