'Soft Landingish': Economists React To The August Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 315,000 jobs in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate is now at 3.7%, up from 3.5% in July, which was the lowest unemployment rate in over half a century.
Nonfarm employment has now risen by 5.8 million jobs over the past 12 months.
Notable job gains were seen in the healthcare industry, which added 48,000 jobs in August. The healthcare industry has now added 412,000 jobs this year, and sits just 37,000 jobs short of its February 2020 level.
Similarly, employment in retail trade grew by 44,000 jobs in August and has now added 422,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
Leisure and hospitality added 31,000 jobs in August. The industry has averaged monthly gains of 90,000 jobs over the first seven months of 2022, but remains 1.2 million jobs below its February 2020 level.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the August jobs report on Twitter.
We added 315,000 jobs in August. This is down substantially from the blistering average pace of 561,000 per month for the 12 months ending in February of this year, but remains solid. 2/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) September 2, 2022
This report seems soft landingish. Pace of job creation still robust. Wage growth cooler than expected. And unemployment rate jump due to more people entering the workforce, as opposed to layoffs. Futures ticking higher.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 2, 2022
This is a dovish report for the Fed. Payroll growth moderating, labor force growing, unemployment edging up. If we get a second straight month of benign CPI data, the policy call this month gets a lot more interesting.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) September 2, 2022
This could be the best data point the Fed has seen this year
— Jon Turek (@jturek18) September 2, 2022
We're a soft CPI report away from markets saying Jackson Hole/Kashkari on Odd Lots was peak hawkishness.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) September 2, 2022
Don't be alarmed by the rise in unemployment: It's actually masking good news. In the household survey employment rose +442k, but the labor force grew even more strongly.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) September 2, 2022
A bigger labor force means this expansion has even more scope to continue, bringing more people along!
Pretty incredible stats:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 2, 2022
-5.8 million jobs have added over the past year
-Employment is now 240,000 higher than pre-pandemic
-Men have fully recovered all job losses from pandemic.
(Women are close, but still ~264,000 off)
-Manufacturing added 461,000 jobs in past year
Job gains were broad-based again in August. While services like health care, prof & biz services, retail led job gains, goods-producing sectors also saw healthy job gains e.g. construction which added 16,000 jobs despite the cooling housing market.#jobsreport 4/ pic.twitter.com/pKfXlfLujb
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) September 2, 2022
But the big gains this months came from specialty trade contractors, both residential and nonresidential. This subsector comprises establishments whose primary activity is performing specific activities (pouring concrete, site preparation, plumbing, painting & electrical work). pic.twitter.com/XXAyI5lgIp
— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) September 2, 2022
The surge in labor force participation probably the single best piece of news in this report.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) September 2, 2022
Make no mistake, we want strong real wage growth for workers! But August’s wage growth—3.8% at an annualized rate—is a very normal/non-inflationary number. That means the Fed doesn’t need more interest rate increases to contain inflation and *that* is good news. 5/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) September 2, 2022
Private-sector employment is now way above its pre-pandemic levels (+885k).
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) September 2, 2022
Public sector? Completely different story.
State+local government combined are still down 647k jobs since Feb 2020
Lots of stories about teacher shortages - but the shortages are happening all across govt
Overall, a lot of very solid jobs data this week. It suggests:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 2, 2022
1) US economy not in a recession
2) Fed will keep tightening to fight inflation
3) Layoffs aren't picking up much...yet
4) Pay increases moderating https://t.co/1fEiU742rx
