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CMBS Market Out Of The Woods? Delinquency Rate Drops For Third Consecutive Month

The rate at which commercial mortgage-backed securities are becoming delinquent has dropped for the third month in a row, according to data tracked by Trepp.


Between March 2016 and June 2017, the delinquency rate was on a gradual climb, but since then it has slowed. The percentage at which loans were past due in U.S. commercial real estate was sitting at 5.4% as of September, with almost $1.3B in loans becoming delinquent last month. That represents a decrease of four basis points from August, Trepp reports.

Although the market is not yet out of the woods, the percentage of loans that are seriously delinquent (meaning more than 60 days past due) sits at 5.24%, which is a drop of 11 basis points month-over-month, according to Trepp.

Morningstar Credit Ratings estimates the CMBS delinquency rate peaked in June after reaching an 18-month high, and reports there are fewer securitized mortgages left to default at maturity now than the year prior. CMBS maturities have slowed as well.

A large group of CMBS loans issued between 2006 and 2007 is set to mature this year, and few will qualify for refinancing because of strict post-recession standards for lenders set by the federal government. This had many experts anticipating rising delinquencies and additional turmoil in the CMBS market. In June, $10B in CMBS loans matured and were in need of refinancing while an estimated $41.7B in CMBS debt is set to mature by November.