THIS MORNING'S BROKEN GLASS
|A tray of broken glasses that toppled this morning at our standing-room-only Breakfast & Schmooze at the Metropolitan Club on the 66th floor of Willis Tower provided the perfect metaphor for RREEF's David Maki to describe the state of capital markets. He said we'll spend 2010 cleaning up the shards. Call us optimists, but we?d prefer to think of it as the good luck it can mean at weddings.|
Legends Mike Reschke and Paul Beitler were at turns philosophical and amusing and kept the audience riveted even though they were glum. They say current circumstances are unlike most of what they've seen in the past. Mike said that $800 billion of loans that are coming mature will be unable to be refinanced because they are underwater. Mike suggested that TARP needs some ?FABRIC?: Federal Asset Backed Rating Insurance. He's been suggesting it to officials for some time, he says, but so far to deaf ears. Paul predicts a ?black swan? event—an outlier with unpredictable outcome—will happen in the next 24 months, just like they always happen.
We love all 350 of you who came!
Greenberg Traurig?s Mike Fishman, far left, moderated a second panel of HFF's Mike Kavanau, Walker & Dunlop's Vic Clark, RREEF?s David Maki, and Wrightwood Capital's David Friedman. Mike was optimistic that lenders will at least get the chance to do some underwriting again this year, while Vic said he not long ago sold a loan for 90 cents on the dollar that is now worth just 40 cents on the dollar; so he feels like a genius but does anticipate markets are bottoming out.
David Maki with Melissa Pielet and KeyBank Real Estate Capital's Elliot Quigley. Melissa's company is working on the renovation of a 90k-SF hospital in Bloomington-Normal. David pointed out that the recession in the 70's was solved by flushing a lot of the bad loans out quickly, an effort that may not happen this time around.
DePaul University School of Real Estate's Suzanne Cannon, second from left, schmoozed with Gensler's Leda Woods, Todd Baisch, and Gary Bazzoni. Todd is excited about Gensler's new project, the Fourth Presbyterian Church just off of Michigan Avenue. He had a lot of fun touring and getting familiar with the building so his team could realistically recreate its interior.
Studley's Tony Smaniotto and HFF's Matthew Lawton may have come for the coffee, but stayed for the great program (like Matt gave us last month when he spoke for us at the Sheraton). HFF has signed six deals in the last 45 days, including the sale of an apartment complex in Naperville, he said. Tony just celebrated his first anniversary of working at Studley.