Inside The Capital Stack: What’s Actually Moving Now

THIS WEEK ON FIRST DRAFT LIVE

Commercial real estate was supposed to break under the weight of higher rates and a wall of maturities. It didn’t.

Instead, lenders spent the past two years modifying loans, refinancing borrowers at higher rates and pushing maturities forward — keeping many troubled assets from hitting the market — allowing deal volume to rebound even as borrowing costs remain elevated and pricing stays stuck. The result is a market sending mixed signals: activity is up, but clarity is not.

So where did the stress actually go? And has it been resolved — or just pushed forward?

On this episode of First Draft Live, Bisnow sits down with Chad Lavender, president of capital markets for North America at Newmark, to break down how liquidity is really moving through the system, whether banks are truly back and what it will take to finally reset pricing in 2026.

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First Draft Live returns for Season 2, bringing with it a continued commitment to compelling conversations with commercial real estate’s leading voices. Inspired by our daily newsletter, The First Draft, Bisnow’s Editor-in-Chief / Chief Content Officer Mark Bonner takes viewers behind the scenes on what’s shaping everything from capital trends and policy changes to sector-specific activity, in discussion with the people making it happen.

We’ve hosted some of the industry’s top voices — and there’s more to come. Bring your questions, join the conversation, or catch the replay within 24 hours if you can’t attend live. Past episodes can be found here.

Interested in speaking? Contact our Vice President of Production, Elizabeth Baker, at liz.baker@bisnow.com.