Miami Multifamily Market Nose-Dives As Hopes For Supply Relief Fade

South Florida commercial real estate is in some ways the envy of the nation, with billionaires flocking to the area, below-average unemployment and rising property values.

The same can't be said for its multifamily market, where deal volume is plummeting and prices are falling amid sluggish rent growth and the deepest construction pipeline in the country.

“[A client] told me, ‘This is the worst multifamily market I have seen since the financial crisis,’” Berkadia senior director of investment sales Omar Morales said. 

There were 41 multifamily transactions totaling $972M in South Florida in the first quarter, down 18% and 20%, respectively, from a year prior, according to an Avison Young report. 

By contrast, overall commercial real estate sales in the region were up 11% year-over-year on a dollar-volume basis and rose 30% in transaction count, according to Avison Young. Nationally, multifamily sales volume was up slightly, showing how out of step the region's apartments have fallen.

Amid a decline in rents and construction levels that aren’t slowing fast enough, multifamily landlords in Miami that are looking to sell are being forced to either swallow losses, accept smaller gains or refinance their properties to wait for a better time.

The buildings that sold in the first quarter traded for an average of $268K per unit, a 14% decrease from the fourth quarter and the lowest average price in more than five years, according to Avison Young and CoStar data. 

“No one wants to advertise that they had to take a loss or realize a loss,” The Bainbridge Cos. Executive Vice President Brian Doppelt said. “So, there's definitely been a trend of kind of kicking things down the line or trying to find a way to stay in the deal.”

Rents in Miami have decreased between 4% and 5% year-over-year for one- and two-bedroom units, according to Zumper. The city has 14,300 units under construction, more than 6% of its existing inventory — the highest ratio of any major market, according to CoStar.

“That just creates downward pressure on rents and downward pressure on what folks are willing to pay,” Bell Partners Vice President of Investments Brown Dennis said.

Miami's population is also shrinking, posing questions about how much demand there will be to fill new units. 

The oversupply resulting from the post-pandemic construction boom of 2021 and 2022 has caused investors to pull back, and the pipeline hasn't shrunk by much in the years since. Many of the buyers that acquired buildings at that time secured near-zero interest rates, a challenge as loans are coming due and values have fallen.

Toronto-based Marlin Spring US Realty paid $44M in 2021 for The Pine Grove Apartments in south Miami-Dade. In January, it sold the property to IMC Equity for $33.5M, a roughly 23% haircut.

In November, an entity tracing to Los Angeles-based JRK Property Holdings purchased the Motion at Dadeland apartments in Miami-Dade County for $72M, according to property records provided by Vizzda. That was more than $40M less than the $114M the seller, an affiliate of Lerner Enterprises, paid for it in 2021.

“Characterizing South Florida multifamily investment as broadly in retreat isn't quite right — it's really a Miami-Dade story,” Cortland Partners Executive Vice President Kyle Bateh said in a statement.

Morales said he has had to have some “tough conversations” with his clients looking to sell, often as their loan is coming due and they realize their property is worth significantly less than what they bought it for.

There are about $4.7B of multifamily loans scheduled to mature this year, a huge jump from the $2.2B that was slated to mature in 2025, according to Trepp data provided to Bisnow.

Still, there is limited distress. Through April, less than 1% of Miami-area multifamily loans were delinquent, according to the data.

But with the difference in expectations and reality, many are opting to refinance their loans and hold on to the assets for a while longer, which has led to the sales market seizing up, Dennis said.

West Palm Beach-based Bainbridge is looking to buy South Florida assets at a discount. But there is a mismatch in what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept.

“We're actively providing solutions to sellers that are facing that situation, and that helps to bridge the bid-ask spread by keeping things quiet and moving quickly,” Doppelt said.