Iran War Hit To Dubai Condo Market 'Good For Miami,' Developers Say
Over the last few years, Miami has trailed Dubai as a leading global market for condos, but developers expect that to change amid hostilities in the Middle East.
Some of Dubai’s luxury residential properties were hit in drone strikes by Iran last month during the ongoing conflict between the Islamic Republic and the U.S.-Israel alliance. Because of the United Arab Emirates' proximity to Iran just across the Persian Gulf, condo buyers who think twice about a unit in Dubai might consider Miami instead, panelists said Tuesday at Bisnow’s Condoverse conference.
“With what's going on in the world right now, it's a reminder of Dubai [that] it is where it is,” Rilea Group President Diego Ojeda said onstage at the Miami Airport Convention Center. “It's next door to that. It's terrible for them. I don't wish this on anyone. It's good for Miami.”
The 2-month-old conflict has led to a spike in oil prices and an increase in inflationary pressures, driving up macroeconomic uncertainty and threatening to put a wrench in construction pipelines and deal flow.
But compared to the rest of the world, the U.S. economy has fared relatively well, despite the war costing the U.S. military $25B thus far. Other economies across the world are bracing for fuel shortages and flashing warning signs of a recession, The New York Times reported.
But the branded condo market is as competitive as it’s ever been — with the number of projects breaking ground growing 19% between 2024 and 2025, according to a February Savills report.
Miami is the second-largest global market for branded condos, with 48 completed projects and 55 planned, according to Savills. Dubai has 64 completed projects and another 87 in the construction pipeline, according to Savills.
Dubai's market started 2026 on a hot streak, with residential sales transactions up 26% year-over-year, totaling over 3,000 transactions for more than $10B, according to a first-quarter Engel & Völkers market report.
But that started to moderate toward the end of February, when the conflict between Iran and Israel arose.
“Some occupiers and investors adopted a more cautious approach, with decision-making timelines extending and transaction activity moderating through March,” the report stated.
By contrast, more Miami condo sales closed in March than at any point since August 2024, according to Florida Realtors. Closings in the first three months of 2026 were up 5.5% over 2025.
The shift in strategy may renew sales momentum in Miami, which saw a slowdown in investments from foreign buyers and international travelers last year.
The growth is expected to come predominantly from European buyers, who had shifted attention to Dubai condos over Miami but may now pivot back, Miami Urban Network Capital Group CEO Robert Thorne said.
The company is codeveloping the Elle Residences Miami, a 180-unit, short-term rental condo project in Edgewater, and the 110-unit Visions at Brickell Station condo-hotel.
Ojeda's firm, which is working on a 146-unit, short-term rental-friendly condo project called The Rider Residences in Wynwood, has noticed an uptick in Turkish buyers, many of whom weigh Dubai against Miami, Ojeda said.
“Whichever way you want to look at it, if you think it was a good idea, a bad idea, economically for us, it's starting to bring [them] this way,” Thorne said.
"They're coming to the U.S. because, at the end of the day, whether we have a political situation where people like them or don't like them, the U.S. is the safest financial source for people to put the money in, and now they're starting to realize it," he added.
