How China's Government Crackdown Could Impact US Real Estate

Photo credit: Bisnow

As equity markets tumble, China’s government is making moves to stop the capital exodus, as wealthy investors seek safe havens for their money.

After easing restrictions on foreign investments in 2012—a move that helped kick-start the historic spending spree in US real estate—China's looking to ban yuan-based funds for overseas investment, sources tell the Wall Street Journal. That could pose a huge threat to US luxury real estate.

With huge developments relying on EB-5 money (90% Chinese), not to mention institutional capital, a capital ban could put a huge dent into the luxury market, if not force an outright market correction.

Bob Knakal, Cushman & Wakefield's chairman of New York Investment Sales, helped kick of the Chinese spending frenzy when he brokered a historic 2012 Brooklyn sale—the first time any foreigner outbid the Hasidic community in Brooklyn's Williamsburg section.

Despite the threat of a ban, foreign capital would keep on flowing, Bob says—even if Chinese money was cut off overnight. "I think it would be an impact, but it wouldn't be a disaster," Bob says.

At the moment, there are two major ways China’s government can target cash outflow, Georgia State University's director of economic forecasting Rajeev Dhawan tells Bisnow: limiting individual investments or focusing on big-ticket purchases by companies, like Angbang Insurance's $2B Waldorf Astoria buy in 2014.

The first option would mean a slowdown in coastal gateway cities, the primary target for Chinese investors after the 2012 floodgates opened.

But, if China goes after institutional investors buying up US assets, “this will be bad news for the pricing of industrial and office buildings,” Rajeev says.

Right now, Chinese firms need a sign-off from the government to close foreign deals, meaning the yuan-fueled acquisition train could derail if the Communist Party sees fit.

HudsonYards

Still, Bob says that loosening of FIRPTA has paved the way for more foreign investment, and not just from China. Plus, lots of Chinese buyers keep their cash outside of China already, and they could use those funds freely.

"Capital markets are very efficient," Bob says. "I think there would be alternative sources of capital that come in to fill the niche."

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's National Newsletters
Related Stories

Wall Street Impatient For Big Tech Returns On Data Center Spending

As AI Adoption Ramps Up, Half A Million Property Managers Are In The Crosshairs

Treasuries Hover Around 4.7% As Wall Street Questions If Warsh Is A 'Dove In Hawk's Clothing'

Federal Government To Sell Nearly 31K SF In Five Points: The Denver Deal Sheet

Avison Young Had Assets Frozen By Bank Over Unpaid Taxes

Artificial Intelligence Companies Reshaping Dublin Office Demand As OpenAI Confirms HQ

Mars Factory Overhaul Stalls As Candymaker's Chicago Expansion Accelerates

Camden Property Trust Sells West Coast Portfolio, Clears $1.5B Target

Churchill Downs Plans To Sell 9 Casinos, Focus On Horse Racing

Bringing Stability And Savings To CRE Insurance Through Working Layer

More Hotel Owners In Need Of Cash Are Getting It From The Big Brands

Former Arms Dealer Targeting Heartland Apartment Takeover Files For Bankruptcy