This week CBRE's 2016 forecast, spearheaded by Texas-Oklahoma director of research & analysis Robert Kramp, was released. In the past 18 months, the oil industry has seen falling rig counts, lower WTI costs leading to increased speculation that the commercial real estate sector will repeat the '80s. The truth is more complicated.
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The graph clearly shows Houston's overall resiliency to the price of oil. Population growth remains strong despite national headlines. Houston added more than 420,000 new jobs in the five-year period between 2010 and 2015. Harris County gained an average 248 residents per day, more than double any other county in the state.
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With energy companies driving most of the demand for office space, the market has been deeply affected,spiking 178% to 8.5M SF. New construction will add 6.8M SF of new product this year. With so much space available, Class-A occupancy has fallen significantly, as shown by the graph. Experts don't expect the strength of the Class-B market to hold as landlords offer more concessions to fill Class-A vacancies, creating a flight to quality.
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Retail is a much rosier picture. Robert (pictured) says Houston's continued population growth, coupled with extra cash savings at the pump, resulted in 2.5M SF of absorption in 2015—the most in 10 years. The increase of suburban development, especially around the newly opened Grand Parkway, is poised to add even more retail expansion.
With such a different picture coming from every major market in Houston, it's never been more important to understand the intricacies of each. Houston is a resilient city. Let's hope the Astros are too.
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