PODCAST: NYU Professor Arpit Gupta On The $450B 'Office Real Estate Apocalypse'

Bisnow's audio series, Bisnow Reports, examines every facet of the international commercial real estate industry — from the murky future of retail and office to real estate’s reckoning with diversity to the effects of climate change on the built world, and so much more. You can subscribe on iTunes, Spotify and Amazon Music, or scroll down to listen in your browser.

Bisnow/Miriam Hall
The View Of Midtown From Brookfield's One Manhattan West

On this episode of Bisnow Reports, we hear from Arpit Gupta, an associate professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business and one of the co-authors of a research paper called "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse."

The report, released over the summer and updated in the last two weeks, makes several predictions about the future of the workplace and what it may do to the value of office buildings.

“We consider two cases, one in which remote work is here to stay,” Gupta said on the podcast. “In that world, we project that the value of New York City office buildings might decline by as much as 60% by 2029. In our base-case scenario, we account for the possibility that we might see that dire outcome or we might actually see people return back to the office.”

Considering both a negative and positive forecast, the report estimates offices will see a 39% decline in value by 2029. In all, the report's authors estimate about $49B will get wiped out in New York City alone, and roughly $450B of value could be lost nationwide.

On the show, Gupta discusses how the report and its predictions have been received in the real estate and investing communities.

“It's certainly a matter of debate what's going to happen, there are many people on the investing side who seem to agree with our conclusions,” he said. “But there are others who are taking the other side of that trade and are hoping that there is going to be a brighter future ahead for the office.”

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's New York Newsletters
Related Stories

NYC Office Investor Warns It Could Go Under As Defaults Pile Up

Deutsche Bank Takes 5 Floors At Oaktree And Quadrant's Canary Wharf Scheme

Coconut Grove Office Flipped For $15M Gain After One Year

D.C.'s Office Market Is Getting A Makeover

Chetrit Group 'Being Dissolved' As Family Turmoil Spirals

Oxford Properties Pays $435M For Boston Office Tower, Eyes More Deals

Century 21 Retail Redevelopment Advances With New Financing, Leases: The N.Y. Deal Sheet

Judge Rules FBI Can't Scrap Maryland Headquarters Plan

EXCLUSIVE: Opal Holdings' Former 700K SF Suburban Chicago Office Campus Hits The Market

Judge Approves $70M Sale Of Philly's Largest Office Complex

Brookfield Offloads 3-Building Silver Spring Office Complex

Bally's Debt Obligations Raise Doubts Over Casino Operator's Future