That Multifamily Supply Glut May Actually Be 'Fake News'

Though New York's multifamily market has shown reasons for concern this year, one study suggests such worries may be overstated.

Concessions have been on the rise this year across the city, as a large number of new deliveries has caused what some say is a supply glut that is keeping rent flat or worse. A report from Ackman-Ziff Real Estate Group claims that the supply glut is due to a one-year construction spike that is set to peter out.

Ackman-Ziff contrasts the number of construction permits filed in the period from 2011-2015 to the five years before the recession, from 2004-2008. It found if all the projects for which permits were requested were completed fully, it would still amount in 25% fewer units than what was built in the pre-recession period.

A disproportionate number of permits issued in the past six years was concentrated in 2015, which saw nearly triple the number of permits requested than in 2014. Permit requests dropped 71% in 2016, and are on pace to fall even further this year.

"In 2015, the amount of permits that were pulled was shocking," Ackman-Ziff Managing Director Jason Meister said. "This past construction boom was much more truncated [than in 2004-2008]."

Citing competing fundamentals such as New York's steady job and population growth, low unemployment and low vacancy, Meister called the oversupply concerns "fake news."

"If you’re a developer and you’re looking to build new construction, this is the perfect time to buy land," Meister said. "If you come to market two years from now, the supply is going to be significantly lower."

Continue reading this story with a free account

Log in or register
Sign up for more articles like this
Subscribe to Bisnow's New York Newsletters
Related Stories

Developers Line Up To Convert Boston Offices To Housing, But Most Still Stuck At Starting Gate

NYC Office Investor Warns It Could Go Under As Defaults Pile Up

To Rein In Costs, Philly Affordable Housing Players Look To Become 'Less Reliant On Consultants'

Chetrit Group 'Being Dissolved' As Family Turmoil Spirals

Rent Concessions Dip As Fewer Apartments Come Online

AvalonBay, Equity Residential Selling Boston Towers As Part Of Merger Settlement

Century 21 Retail Redevelopment Advances With New Financing, Leases: The N.Y. Deal Sheet

IRES Looks To More Forward Funding As Resi Market Gathers Pace

Knightvest Capital Acquires 3 Multifamily Communities In Austin

Millennium Partners Lands $281M Loan For Winthrop Center Tower

Bally's Debt Obligations Raise Doubts Over Casino Operator's Future

Vivmark Details Merged Entity, Becomes Largest U.S. Apartment REIT By Far