Average price/SF is dropping in NYC? How can that be? Despite four $1B deals, properties sold this year have gone for an average of $455/SF, down from $469 last year, Massey Knakal chairman Bob Knakal said yesterday. That's because investors are climbing up the risk ladder, which leads to Northern Manhattan and Brooklyn and to development sites. Development sites, in fact, made up 22% of Q3 dollar volume. Price per buildable SF was $215 in Q3, compared with $198 last year.

The above snapshot of Massey Knakal's general economic update has been brought to you by Congress. Massey Knakal expects Q4 to turn in 1,723 transactions, the most ever. And most of those are outside Manhattan. The number of properties traded (annualized) will have risen in Northern Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx, but not in Manhattan proper.

Rob Shapiro, whom we snapped with Michael Amirkhanian, says the 319 Northern Manhattan trades expected for the year exceed the pre-recession peak of 312, and dollar volume on the first three quarters already has bested last year, not to mention several large portfolios still likely to close. In Brooklyn, Michael says, $860M will have been spent on development sites by year's end, 10 times the $76M average for '09 and '10. (Seriously, what were we doing with all of our free time those years?)