Like 'Summer Of '69': Economists React To September Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000 jobs in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, marking the country's 96th straight month of employment gains. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest since 1969.
Job gains in professional and business services, and in the healthcare industry, showed the highest gains in September. Construction employment also continued its upward trend, adding 23,000 jobs in September. The construction industry has added 315,000 jobs in the past 12 months.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on Twitter.
The takeaway from this report is that the US economy steams ahead, with wages continuing to rise and the unemployment rate falling to a 48-yr low. While there's a headline disappointment, it's not enough to derail the bigger picture. https://t.co/ffUPbvbMSW UST yields tick up pic.twitter.com/1lj1UEnSFq— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 5, 2018
Unemployment rate falls to 3.7%, labor force participation stable, upward revisions to employment for July and August, 0.3% wage increase.— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) October 5, 2018
It’s enough to make you ignore the 134K headline jobs # for September. And you would be mostly right in doing that.
Shake off the 134K on jobs (Florence could be in there a bit); 3-mos avg is ~190K, ie, strong. And 3.7% on unemp is real, ie, not due to labor force exits. 2.8% on wages pretty good too...in other words, yet another solid report. More to come!— Jared Bernstein (@econjared) October 5, 2018
I bought my first real six string— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) October 5, 2018
Bought it at the five-and-dime
Played it 'til my fingers bled
Was the summer of sixty-nine
And it was the last time the unemployment rate was this low
Wage growth down slightly to 2.8%, but given weather and the volatility in the series, I'm not too disappointed in that pic.twitter.com/re13go2OBh— Martha Gimbel (@marthagimbel) October 5, 2018
Put together this month's disappointing job growth with the big revisions for the past two strong months, and you're seeing average job growth over the past three months of +190k.— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 5, 2018
That's strong, and even stronger for this point in the cycle.
One thing making it harder to parse what 3.7% unemployment means for the Fed: they're increasingly downplaying their own u* estimates. (John Williams quotes from last week's Columbia speech below) pic.twitter.com/zP8dK0dXR2— Jeanna Smialek (@jeannasmialek) October 5, 2018
An interesting historical fact is that during periods of low unemployment, in the olden days, employers used to increase compensation to compete for workers.— Binyamin Appelbaum (@BCAppelbaum) October 5, 2018
Too much weight in the bottom half of this @BLS_gov chart, not enough in top right quadrant—explains how composition of jobs explains a lot about wage growth being meh so far even with unemployment so low. #JobsReport pic.twitter.com/QIfWSD7IOw— Diane Lim (@economistmom) October 5, 2018
Finally, some perspective: I'm 45 years old, and the U.S. unemployment rate has never been this low in my lifetime. All the more astonishing, given that only a decade ago, the global economy imploded in a way not seen since my grandparents youth.— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 5, 2018