Confusing, Weird, Puzzling: Economists React To November Jobs Report On Twitter
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, a significant drop from January when the unemployment rate was 6.3%.
Revisions added 82,000 jobs to the previous two months' job reports.
Notable job gains in November occurred in commercial real estate-related sectors including transportation and warehousing, construction and manufacturing. Retail trade employment declined over the month.
Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 50,000 in November and is now 210,000 jobs above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level.
The construction industry added 31,000 jobs in November, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics said followed gains "of a similar magnitude" in the prior two months. Employment in the construction industry is now down 115,000 jobs from February 2020.
Leisure and hospitality, which had led job gains in previous months, added only 23,000 jobs in November. Employment in the industry is down 1.3 million jobs since February 2020.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the November jobs report on Twitter.
@BLS_gov reports that payrolls grew 210,000 in November, payroll numbers for October and September were adjusted upward by a combined 82,000 from previous reports. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in the household survey that showed a big jump in the number with jobs. @AFLCIO— William E. Spriggs (@WSpriggs) December 3, 2021
This report was very nuanced. The labor participation rate rose and the jobless rate fell to the lowest level since February 2020.— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 3, 2021
What a confusing job report: household data show more an increase in employment of 1.1 million people but only 210K jobs added. What's happening? My guess is that our normal seasonal patterns are not being normal.— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) December 3, 2021
Weird jobs numbers. Very strong household survey: unemployment down to 4.2% & labor force participation up as employment up 1.1 million.— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) December 3, 2021
But the normally more reliable payroll survey shows only 210K jobs added.
Some explanations may emerge but it may just be measurement error.
That sharp decline in the unemployment rate looks puzzling. But it's because the household survey is *a lot* more optimistic, showing employment growth of 1.1 million(!)— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 3, 2021
Nobody knows to do with this mess, lol.— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) December 3, 2021
November’s divergence between the household & establishment surveys is causing a temporary & frustrating shortage in our hot take industry #supplychaincrisis— Guy Berger (@EconBerger) December 3, 2021
That’s SEVEN consecutive months now of positive, prior-month jobs-number revisions. https://t.co/BgivGaN484— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 3, 2021
-- Hourly earnings still rising by almost 5% year over year. Workers have leverage.— Carl R. Tannenbaum (@NT_CTannenbaum) December 3, 2021
-- Still about 3.5 million fewer people with jobs today relative to February 2020.
-- Nothing in the report that would suggest course changes for monetary policy.
Leisure and hospitality industries only added 23,000 jobs in November. It had added 170k & 108k the past 2 months.— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) December 3, 2021
Today’s #JobsReport is far below expectations, but can’t blame on new #COVID19 variant. I suspect leisure/hospitality is hitting a new, lower full-employment capacity as many prior workers have left the industry permanently and businesses have adjusted practices and consolidated.— Diane Lim (@economistmom) December 3, 2021
Even with the weaker than expected November payroll numbers, job growth so far has already topped 6.1 million for 2021. As long as Nov is a blip, the 2021 average rate of 555,000 per month still means we are on track for a full recovery by the end of 2022. https://t.co/FqVVDDfXEN— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 3, 2021
#jobsday construction and manufacturing both added 33k jobs, now down 1.5 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively from pre-pandemic levels— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) December 3, 2021
Here's a deeper look at the November job gains & losses:— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 3, 2021
Education (state & local) -15,600
Nursing homes -11,000
It’s Jobs Day!— C. Nicole Mason, PhD (@cnicolemason) December 3, 2021
Sectors dominated by women still struggling or stagnant.
Retail employment fell by 47K. Healthcare, Leisure, Hospitality, unchanged.
Male dominated sectors (transportation, construction, manufacturing) up in terms of job growth.
It’s still a #shecession
Unemployment rates for November vs October:— Chabeli Carrazana (@ChabeliH) December 3, 2021
All women: 4% (⬇️ from 4.4%)
White women: 3.7% (⬇️ from 3.9%)
Black women: 5% (⬇️ from 7%) — ⭐️big drop here
Latinas: 5.3% (⬇️ from 5.7%)
Asian women: 3.9% (⬇️ from 4.4%)
I expected a slow down in December as case rates rise and people are done with shopping early.— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) December 3, 2021
Now I think we'll see an upward revision for Nov. and more of the same in December. Which is that we're roughly at 400K-500K jobs a month and if we can beat omicron we'll stay there.
“One of the weirdest reports I have ever seen.” https://t.co/tPHZD4V4p4— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 3, 2021