'Soft Landing Report Alert': Economists React To The May Jobs Report On Twitter
The unemployment rate remains at 3.6%, well below May 2021, when it was 5.8%.
Notable job gains were found in leisure and hospitality, which added 84,000 jobs in May, over half of which were in food services and drinking places. Employment in retail trade declined over the month, but the sector still has 159,000 more jobs than it did in February 2020.
Construction employment increased by 36,000 jobs in May after seeing no change in April.
Continued employment growth now has the U.S. economy 822,000 jobs short of its pre-pandemic level from February 2020.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on Twitter:
Payroll employment rose 390,000 in May, revisions were made down for March and up for April for a net change down of 22,000. So the number was strong but shows a very slight cooling. The unemployment rate stayed roughly the same at 3.6 percent. @AFLCIO— William E. Spriggs (@WSpriggs) June 3, 2022
1.2 million jobs created in the last 3 months -- this isn't anything close to a recession.— Conor Sen (@conorsen) June 3, 2022
There is no sign of recession in the jobs data.— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) June 3, 2022
The labor market is jugging away and is so far not a contributor to inflation. Employers want to hire, workers are showing up, and the industries that are still recovering from the pandemic like leisure and hospitality are doing the most hiring.— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) June 3, 2022
Overall: The job market is starting to moderate, with slightly slower growth in payrolls and wage growth and higher labor force participation.— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) June 3, 2022
That's what the Fed and Biden administration want to see.
There's a pretty narrow path that keeps this expansion going, and it involves people returning to the labor force, job growth decelerating a bit, and wage growth not following the supply-driven price shocks. (Also, no big covid shocks.)— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 3, 2022
So far, we're threading that needle.
No, we’re not in recession (not even close!), today’s @BLS_gov jobs report confirms. The labor market is still hot, but arguably not heating up further nor cooling (yet). 2022 was forecast as the year of deceleration & that is what we’re seeing. Charts to come later today!— Guy Berger (@EconBerger) June 3, 2022
Soft landing report alert: Job gains still strong but gradually moderating & being met with rising participation--UR steady at 3.6% for 3m! Wage gains lagging inflation but entirely concentrated in rank and file, supervisors saw a decline in May--no wage price spiral. pic.twitter.com/eaKLgFDW4q— Dr. Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) June 3, 2022
Also strong gains in education:— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) June 3, 2022
+36,000 in state gov't education (state universities)
+33,000 in private education
+14,000 in local education (K-12)
Three major macro events are taking place this year.— Brian Wesbury (@wesbury) June 3, 2022
1) The Fed is raising rates.
2) The checks from the government are over.
3) Services are re-opening.
So, while goods spending is slowing down, the biggest part of the economy is opening up.
Result: No recession in 2022.
Overall, this was a solid report for construction. In May, job gains were highest for specialty trade contractors (+17,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (+11,000). Construction employment is 40,000 higher than in February 2020. pic.twitter.com/lEGAEO5Kih— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) June 3, 2022
Currently, the manufacturing sector has 12,768,000 employees, with 17,000 fewer workers today relative to February 2020. Manufacturing employment is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels in the next month or two.— Chad Moutray (@chadmoutray) June 3, 2022
#jobsday hotels and restaurants added 21.4k and 46.1k jobs, respectively. Now down by 283k and 751K jobs from pre-pandemic level— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) June 3, 2022
The labor market remains strong. One of the brightest signs in this report is that women's labor force participation hit a post-Feb. 2020 high.— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) June 3, 2022
The private sector has now gained back 99.0% of the jobs it lost in the recession. State and local governments have gained back just 57.3%. We have to push state and local governments to use their ARPA funds to raise pay and hire. 5/— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) June 3, 2022