Bisnow Exclusive: Top Economists Give Their Super Bowl Predictions
Bisnow turns to these experts to decipher the swirling winds of global economic turmoil—they predict outcomes from a myriad of jobs reports, stock crashes and interest rate hikes.
So naturally, we had them turn their crystal ball on something equally difficult to figure out: the NFL. Here's their outlook on Super Bowl 50.
Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
"Both Denver and Charlotte experienced good home price growth and therefore both fans have housing equity comfort to spend money for the Super Bowl. However, defense always beats offense in important games. That’s why I’m going with Carolina."
Ray Torto, Harvard Lecturer, Retired Global Chief Economist at CBRE
"I am a dejected Patriots' fan, can’t even think about the Super Bowl...although I know the Panthers will kill Denver."
Jack G. Kern, Director – Research and Publications, Yardi
"Here are my variables and how I am forecasting the Super Bowl outcome for 2016: Readiness and Preparation, Age and Maturity, Sequential Stability and Validation, Leadership and Purpose.
The ability of the teams to show a demonstrated resilience to each set of downs and to run plays with a great degree of discipline seems to indicate one of the teams is stronger than the other and has a roster of more experienced veteran players who can handle the pressure.
My Forecast: The likely outcome based on all of the available information is the Denver Broncos, winning by a narrow margin of 21-17, with momentum shifting in the second half but preventing an upset loss by the Panthers."
Ken McCarthy, Principal Economist, Applied Research Lead for Cushman & Wakefield
"My prediction is for Carolina to win by a score of 31 to 17. The game will pit strength against strength as the strong Carolina offense goes up against the elite Denver defense. Denver’s defense has had trouble in the past handling mobile quarterbacks and I think that will be the case in the Super Bowl. I also expect Carolina’s defense to put strong pressure on Denver’s offense, which has sputtered throughout the season."
Christopher Thornberg, Principal, Beacon Economics
"A classic example of an elite battle between brash youth and wisened experience surrounded by massive media budgets, hyperbolic reporting, frenzied speculation and lots of partying prior to what will more than likely be a fairly boring game while we ignore the true issues and problems the world around that so desperately need our attention. In other words—it's a lot like the rest of the year."
Jamie Woodwell, VP of Commercial Real Estate Research, Mortgage Bankers Association
"With the Steelers on the sidelines, the game itself is a little less interesting than it could be. That being said, I’d look for a constrained Lady Gaga, a long halftime show, half the fans saying the refs influenced the outcome of the game and a surprise appearance by "left shark." The winning quarterback will take home the MVP—which should look nice next to his Heisman."
Robert Bach, Director of Research—Americas, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank
"There is a surprising correlation between labor market momentum and NFL team momentum. Payroll employment in Charlotte has grown 3.3% over the past 12 months, far ahead of Denver’s 1.9%. But total employment in Denver is 10.1% above the prior peak in 2007, versus a gain of 8.2% in Charlotte. Taking the difference between the two sets of scores and dividing that by the square root of the circumference of a football (fully inflated, not the New England variety) leads me to forecast that PEYTON WILL PREVAIL, 28 to 17."