What Will The Next Global Market Meltdown Look Like?
There's plenty of opinion on the (supposed) pending recession as the real estate cycle heads into its ninth inning. And we're to believe the next global financial crisis will be caused in large part by regulations designed to prevent a crash. (Isn't that ironic?)
In an opinion piece published on MarketWatch, commentator Satyajit Das writes that following the 2008 fiasco, regulators approved risky hybrid securities like contingent capital and bail-in bonds to recapitalize banks.
While this helped boost the banks, the volume of risky loans—as we've reported recently—is starting to look eerily close to the conditions that started the downturn.
And just this past week, Blackstone's head of real estate, Jon Gray, (pictured) expressed his concerns on commercial real estate, the latest in a string of public market damnations from players whose opinions hold merit in the industry.
“There is a high probability that we are looking at a recession in the next 12 months,” real estate mogul Sam Zell (pictured) said back in December. Much like before the last downturn, Sam started a mass "Zelloff," unloading billions of real estate in multiple deals.
While a recession (or a correction—others remain less apocalyptic) could be near, the economic outlook could be far worse. According to another expert's opinion—yes, there goes the O-word again—China's potential downturn could cause up to four times the damage of the Great Recession. [MW]