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Bisnow’s Game Data Shows Your Worries About Brexit

Prime minister Boris Johnson

Earlier this month, Bisnow published a choose your own adventure game that gave players the ability to pick what they think might happen in Brexit negotiations, and find out the consequences for commercial property.

The way the article was formatted provided an interesting insight: Bisnow’s analytics system allowed us to see how many people chose the different options presented, the paths you chose to follow at the various forks in the road. That could provide a window into what the real estate industry thinks is going to happen with Brexit, or perhaps the options you are most worried about and want to figure what will happen if they occur.

At the start of the game, readers were presented with four potential outcomes of Brexit negotiations: leaving with a deal, leaving without a deal, a long extension to allow for more talks and a short extension to allow for a general election.

The most popular option picked was the UK leaving the EU without a deal. This makes sense: At the time of writing it looked the most likely option, and also would be the most dramatic change to the UK economy if it does come about.

Once this option was picked, readers were fairly balanced about whether this would be good or bad for the UK, with about 55% of you following the path to find out how this would be bad for UK property — almost an inverse of the result of the original vote itself, where 52% of people voted to leave the EU.

The second most popular option was for the UK to leave the EU with a deal, and once again, it was fairly balanced as to whether you thought any deal would be good or bad for UK real estate.

In terms of the final two options, more people thought there would be a short extension and general election than a longer extension. This is perhaps reflective of the fact that a long extension would see the holding pattern in the UK investment market continue.

When it comes to a general election, it is unsurprising that most people who followed this path thought there would be either a Conservative party majority, or a Conservative coalition with the Brexit party: Property has traditionally favoured a Conservative government. Of all the options presented by the game, a government led by Jeremy Corbyn was the path taken the least, perhaps a reflection of just how damaging the industry think the current Labour leader would be for property.