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Most Lenders Think We’ve Got 18 Months Tops Before The Next Downturn

The City of London

A major survey of property lenders think the next U.K. property downturn will occur by 2020 at the latest.

The Loan Market Association polled its 660 member associations on a range of issues related to U.K. real estate, and more than 80% said the next downturn will hit before the end of 2020. Around 8% said it would be this year, 35% said next year and 42% said in 2020.

In spite of this, they still think U.K. real estate represents a good place to deploy real estate debt and equity — 72% said they think it is a relative safe haven.

The LMA’s members overwhelmingly said logistics is the hottest U.K. lending market, with 41% picking it out. Rented residential came in second with 25%.

The view that the U.K. market is closing in on a downturn mirrors the findings of other reports such as the Property Industry Alliance, which said U.K. prices are getting close to danger-zone levels, and Cushman & Wakefield’s Fair Value Index, which showed that for the first time, no U.K. submarkets are undervalued.