Chicago's Multifamily Market Has Momentum. Institutional Money Still Hasn't Fully Bought In

Despite steady rent growth, a deep pool of educated renters and one of the smallest construction pipelines in the country, Chicago’s multifamily market is being held back by one thing.

Institutional capital needs to catch up.

Local and private investors are keeping deals moving, but once institutional money fully recognizes the opportunity to buy assets at below replacement cost in a growing market, Chicago multifamily will take off, Lument Managing Director Todd Stofflet told Bisnow.

“The continued strength in Chicago is starting to wake the herd up, and they're starting to ask the questions, trying to develop investment theses on Chicago and some of the other Midwestern markets,” Stofflet said. “It takes time and it takes transactions.”

Chicago has one of the smallest multifamily construction pipelines in the country, according to a report from real estate investment sales company Lument shared exclusively with Bisnow.

Units in the pipeline make up less than 1% of Chicago’s total multifamily inventory, a rate only met by Houston and San Francisco. 

There are probably about a dozen sites that are shovel-ready in the city that aren’t getting built because developers aren’t finding equity for them, Stofflet said. Equity challenges make it difficult to project exactly how many units will deliver in the city and when. 

Many of the city’s traditional major sponsors, like JPMorgan Chase and Ares, have pulled back from the market, so the difficulty for investors is finding a source of equity excited about developing in the city and comfortable with returns on its investment, Stofflet said. Many of the institutional investors that were on the sidelines are heading back to growth markets like Austin, Charlotte and Nashville, he said.

“I look at Chicago, and I see less than 1% in the pipeline, 7% year-over-year rent growth in downtown,” Stofflet said. “At some point, you just have to focus back on yield and where I'm going to make more money, and that is the Midwest right now.”

Chicago started off the year with strong multifamily sales. The city recorded nearly $1B in multifamily transactions in the first quarter, one of its strongest quarterly performances on record, according to the report. 

But yearly sales won’t come near a record — total year-end multifamily volume in the Chicago area for 2025 will likely be close to the transaction mark in both 2023 and 2024, which was about $3.9B, Stofflet said. 

That’s a far cry from the nearly $5.9B of multifamily sales in the Chicago area in 2022. Of the 12,400 units on the market in the city, 4,000 have closed or are under contract as buyers and sellers feel out pricing, Stofflet said.  

As more product hits the market, it is starting to draw a wider range of investors back to Chicago, Stofflet said. Groups that have wanted to sell for a while are starting to test the waters to see what today’s market will bear.

Downtown Chicago did see some return of institutional and private equity firms — they accounted for more than half of the dollar volume and nearly a third of transactions, according to the report.

“You're starting to see institutional groups back on your bid lists in Chicagoland, but for the most part, the groups that are winning are private capital just because they have a longer-term perspective,” Stofflet said. 

Seeking lower rent is renters’ top reason for leaving their units, but Stofflet said that shouldn’t be a big concern for landlords. Chicago landlords are comfortable continuing to push rents because there isn’t a significant amount of new inventory coming online, which means landlords don’t have to compete over concessions. 

Some renters are staying in the rental pool longer and coupling together later, and other renters are leaving Chicago entirely because they can’t afford to live in the city, Stofflet said. 

“For every person leaving Chicago, we're being replaced with one that is five years younger and making $10K more,” he said. 

The percentage of Chicagoans between 25 and 34 years old with a bachelor’s degree or higher is nearly 11% above the national average, and the city’s demographics are shifting. Chicago’s major universities are bringing an influx of educated people to the city, Stofflet said.  

But still, some investors remain skeptical of Chicago’s reputation because they are inundated with “clickbait” that the city is filled with crime, overly progressive and bankrupt, Stofflet said. Until those perceptions shift, institutional capital is likely to stay away, leaving deals to contrarian investors and family offices.

“The more that we can show a stable transaction environment in Chicago, the more that institutional money will feel comfortable investing back in Chicago,” Stofflet said.

CORRECTION, NOV. 11, 3:25 P.M. CT: This story has been updated to correct the misspelling of a company name.