WHY WE LUV A RECESSION
|The recession may be over, but the economists' predictions are just beginning. Members of the Chicago chapter of the Real Estate Lenders Association met yesterday at the Union League to speculate on whether we'll have an L, U or V shaped recovery.|
We snapped DePaul's Michael Miller, center, who predicted 2.5% GDP growth this year, which is about as much as the economy can sustain. He forecasts unemployment will stay at 9.5-10%, inflation should be about 2.2%, while oil prices will stay at $75-90 per barrel. The most important part of coming out of the recession will be the government's exit strategy, he said.
Associated Bank's Sarah Walker said stimulus funds helped with unemployment, but it was costing $135,000 to create just one green job. (By our math, $1 for the green job salary and $134,999 refurbishing so the employee's Prius fits in a cubicle.) This doesn't bode well for the real estate sectors banking on those jobs for improvement in vacancy rates. Mesirow Financial's Adolfo Laurenti said the biggest change in employment has been the IT sector because it diversified the US economy to a point where there won't be any massive layoffs, but there won't be a mass of rehiring either.