News
The US Economy and CRE Lending
May 10, 2011
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| We snapped Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren last week at the Westin Copley to give a run down on the state of the economy. He tells us that the Federal Open Market Committee expects inflation to remain stable. Oil prices may be on the rise but with the developed economies more oriented toward services than manufacturing, the shock is limited. Therefore, he says, there's no reason to restrain the economy with tighter monetary policy. Until unemployment and prices for food and energy decline, he says the present accommodating policy is appropriate. In the medium term, two or three years, the Fed wants to see the US at full employment and inflation at 2%. |
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| Our photographer captured America's oldest ritual (the business card offer) in its natural habitiat. After Eric spoke at the NAIOP sponsored breakfast, there was a panel on lending moderated by HFF?s Riaz Cassum. With him were Conerstone RE Advisers?Robert Little, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Holmes (both above), CIBC World Market?s Michael Hart, and People?s United Bank?s Thomas Healey. Stephen says the CMBS sector, absent for nearly three years, is back and will be able to cover a portion of the loans maturing in ?11 and ?12 with greater discipline than in the past. Compared to securitizations of $11B in '10, this year he expects $35B to $50B and more in ?12. He assures us that the CMBS sector will ?screw up again,? but the damage will be limited by more alert regulators, rating agencies, and B-piece buyers who will impose discipline. |
