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CREW Convention: What's the Deal with DC?

Bisnow is on the ground in Miami Beach, reporting on CREW's national convention. “DC is done,” Rosen Consulting Group chairman Ken Rosen announced yesterday. (We snapped him with HFF’s Susan Hill and Butler Burgher Group’s Diane Butler.) He says unless the government grows again, we’ll have office and multifamily oversupply for a long time. He says it's barely above Detroit for job growth (with almost none), and he’s plotting 0% multifamily rent and occupancy growth. Want an alternative? You might try North Dakota, which is creating the most jobs in the country (4.4% growth) or Denver, where multifamily properties are raising rents 10% on average. (We have a Bisnow Denver you can read—but must admit we're not in North Dakota yet.)

He admits he’s said this before, but Ken thinks this time interest rates and the 10-year Treasury really won’t be going any lower. Although Fed chair Janet Yellen didn’t raise rates when we hit 6.5% unemployment (which her predecessor Ben Bernanke had set as his threshold), Ken says monetary policy has done all it can. Ken forecasts the 10-year bonds will hit 3.3% by the end of this year, and 4.8% at the end of 2018.