Yesterday at NAIOP: Another Recession?
Yesterday, we heard SunTrust chief economist Greg Miller say that the economy may be on the mend, but a recession could be around the corner. At the NAIOP-Northern Va. annual forecast lunch in Falls Church, Greg said that recessions usually happen every five years and the economy is three years in to a recovery. But business orders are coming in, consumers are spending, and jobs are being generated, he adds. The deficit will even improve this financial year (thanks to tax increases) but could creep back in 2014. The other indicator that worries Greg: Disposable income is falling.
JLL research guru Scott Homa (right, whom we snapped with NAIOP-NoVa prez Dave Millard of Avison Young) warned that office space requirements are drastically changing.Telecommuting has caused companies to demand less square footage, and hoteling has grown too--according to Scott, every job used to require 250 SF of space, and that's now down to 75-90 SF per worker. Scott's other predictions? Office markets outside the Beltway will become more competitive; the industrial market is on the rise; and Nats ace Stephen Strasburg will win 20 games. We're going to hold you to that, Scott.