Developers building projects centered around South Florida's Tri-Rail stations may lose their pull if the transportation system can't close a potentially fatal funding gap.

South Florida Regional Transportation Authority’s publicly funded transit system, Tri-Rail, was handed a $27M budget cut in July by the Florida Department of Transportation.

At the new funding levels, officials with the authority estimate that Tri-Rail, which has been running between Miami and West Palm Beach since 1989, would run out of cash by 2027.

Transit-oriented developments planned around the stations could suffer, SFRTA and Tri-Rail Executive Director Dave Dech told Bisnow in an interview. They could draw fewer renters, and some even have requirements in their loans to be close to transit, he said.

“Losing commuter rail would be a blow as you're trying to seek and have other people come down and move into this area,” Dech said.

While public transit nationwide still hasn't recovered since the pandemic, ridership for the Tri-Rail reached a record high with more than 4 million riders in 2024.

“People are looking around the country to grow rail and establish rail. It would be a shame to have one that's working and lose it,” Dech said.

South Florida developers have pleaded for better transportation infrastructure to accommodate the region's growth over the last five years, as Miami's traffic  has climbed to sixth-worst in the U.S., according to mobility consulting firm Inrix.

Developers have increasingly gravitated toward building near transportation systems because it gives them incentives like access to loans or grants, the right to build larger projects with less parking, as well as increased resident and visitor accessibility to and from their projects.

All of which could be at risk for those building on or around SFRTA's 19 Tri-Rail stations if it runs out of funding, Dech said.

Grover Corlew co-founder and principal Mark Corlew broke ground last month on a 312-unit multifamily project just a 10-minute walk away from the Cypress Creek Tri-Rail station in Fort Lauderdale.

He told Bisnow last week that the site's proximity to the station was partially what made it attractive to the development team. While he doesn’t expect it to impact demand for the project, he said it could hurt the local workforce.

The privately funded Brightline train has been pitched as an alternative, but it only has five stops in South Florida, and a round-trip ticket from Miami to West Palm Beach can cost more than $60. Tri-Rail stops at each of South Florida's three international airports, and round-trip fares top out at $17.50.

“I think it makes the area less desirable overall,” Corlew said. “I don't see this in any way having a positive impact if it were to lose funding and cease running up and down.”

The project, dubbed Mayla Cypress, is in Fort Lauderdale's Uptown Urban Village, where the city adopted a master plan in 2019 to encourage more mixed-use development near the Tri-Rail station.

“The common goal is to get folks out of their car and using the transportation networks to go north and south, primarily in South Florida, and, to some extent, east and west,” Corlew said.

Just months before the state slashed Tri-Rail's budget, Coconut Grove-based Swerdlow Group agreed to pay $34.5M to build a new station on the line to secure approval for its $2.6B Little River District megaproject.

Led by Michael Swerdlow, the 65-acre project will bring more than 5,700 affordable and workforce housing units to the city's Little River and Little Haiti neighborhoods. Swerdlow declined Bisnow's request for an interview and, through a spokesperson, dismissed the idea that the rail service will be allowed to fail.

“With more than 4.4 million passengers relying on Tri-Rail and the system achieving an all-time ridership record this year, we are confident that state and local officials will work together to secure a funding solution for this vital community service,” a Swerdlow representative told Bisnow in a statement.

Swerdlow and his team are still “full steam ahead” with plans to build the train station, said Dech, who last spoke with the development team at the end of July to discuss possible grant and loan opportunities.

Not only are these projects key opportunities for developers looking to maximize their sites through resident and visitor access or transit-oriented incentives, but they are also an important piece of the Tri-Rail's budget.

“We do have several stations where we own land where we can enter into long-term lease agreements and we can generate revenue for 50 to 99 years based on the rents and the commercial developments going on there,” Dech said. “When you start looking at stations that we don't own the land, then you start looking at just the potential for the increased ridership coming out of those stations.”

The transit authority owns the land around its Boca Raton station, where 13th Floor Investments plans to develop the 340-unit Link at Boca. SFRTA is investing $40M in the project, secured a Department of Transportation loan to finance its development, and will receive $2M in annual lease payments, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported.

But the revenue it gets from ground leases isn't enough to close the hole blown in the budget by the state government. Dech, who was surprised by the state’s decision, said its future depends on funding from state and local governments, especially as costs rise.

“No one wants to shut down Tri-Rail,” Dech said. “But there are, depending on who you talk to — they feel that other people should foot more of the bill.”

He has a meeting with officials with FDOT, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties Friday to discuss potential solutions to close the funding gap, he said.

In the meantime, plans to enter into long-term contracts, upgrade its facilities and expand its services have been paused until funding is stable.

“We are certainly not going to save our way out of this predicament,” Dech said. “It has to be a combination of savings and additional funding — that is really the crux of the conversation right now between the state and the counties. The state is pushing very hard for the counties to contribute more. The counties are working.”